You win a game show and are given a choice: a $1 million cash prize, right now, no strings attached, or a 25% shot at a $100 million cash prize. Which do you choose?
Take the buck in the hand. No brainier.
If you lower the amount of the sure thing to 10,000--I guess that more people might take the risk.
Take the million! It's guaranteed.
A 25 percent chance at 100 m should be worth 25 m. It is a great bet. It is better than being the house in Vegas.
Y'all is crazy! I'll take box number 4 please.
You *might* get a 50-50 split at a 75% shot, but I don't think it would even get there at 50%.
Odds would say this is the best gamble you will ever be offered. Only a fool wouldn't take a bet that is worth 25 m for a cost of 1 m.
The decision is not based on expected value alone...everyone's risk tolerance is different. A $1M loss to a billionaire is nothing, but someone living paycheck-to-paycheck could not afford to take the gamble.
Don't forget that this is a one-time draw...if we could run 100 times, of course I'd take option with the higher EV.
Low risk compared to the reward, probably the lowest you will find. If your risk profile won't accommodate this, you probably wear a condom when masterbating.
If you are broke, I would hardly call putting $1M of essentially YOUR OWN MONEY at that point low risk.