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Cole12 October 18th, 2013 12:06pm

You win a game show and are given a choice: a $1 million cash prize, right now, no strings attached, or a 25% shot at a $100 million cash prize. Which do you choose?

$1M $100M
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Comments: Add Comment

Ebola1 Florida
10/18/13 3:22 pm

Take the buck in the hand. No brainier.

Reply
raccoon1 SoCal
10/18/13 8:28 am

If you lower the amount of the sure thing to 10,000--I guess that more people might take the risk.

Reply
ry1206an Pawnee City Council
10/18/13 7:42 am

Take the million! It's guaranteed.

Reply
DaveL
10/18/13 10:08 am

A 25 percent chance at 100 m should be worth 25 m. It is a great bet. It is better than being the house in Vegas.

kermie gaytopia
10/18/13 6:51 am

Y'all is crazy! I'll take box number 4 please.

Reply
AlexD Respectful Debate
10/18/13 5:43 am

You *might* get a 50-50 split at a 75% shot, but I don't think it would even get there at 50%.

Reply
DaveL
10/18/13 10:10 am

Odds would say this is the best gamble you will ever be offered. Only a fool wouldn't take a bet that is worth 25 m for a cost of 1 m.

AlexD Respectful Debate
10/18/13 10:32 am

The decision is not based on expected value alone...everyone's risk tolerance is different. A $1M loss to a billionaire is nothing, but someone living paycheck-to-paycheck could not afford to take the gamble.

AlexD Respectful Debate
10/18/13 10:52 am

Don't forget that this is a one-time draw...if we could run 100 times, of course I'd take option with the higher EV.

DaveL
10/18/13 2:44 pm

Low risk compared to the reward, probably the lowest you will find. If your risk profile won't accommodate this, you probably wear a condom when masterbating.

AlexD Respectful Debate
10/18/13 4:06 pm

If you are broke, I would hardly call putting $1M of essentially YOUR OWN MONEY at that point low risk.