You win a game show and are given a choice: a $1 million cash prize, right now, no strings attached, or a 25% shot at a $100 million cash prize. Which do you choose?
Odds would say this is the best gamble you will ever be offered. Only a fool wouldn't take a bet that is worth 25 m for a cost of 1 m.
Y'all is crazy! I'll take box number 4 please.
A 25 percent chance at 100 m should be worth 25 m. It is a great bet. It is better than being the house in Vegas.
Take the buck in the hand. No brainier.
If you lower the amount of the sure thing to 10,000--I guess that more people might take the risk.
If you are broke, I would hardly call putting $1M of essentially YOUR OWN MONEY at that point low risk.
Don't forget that this is a one-time draw...if we could run 100 times, of course I'd take option with the higher EV.
The decision is not based on expected value alone...everyone's risk tolerance is different. A $1M loss to a billionaire is nothing, but someone living paycheck-to-paycheck could not afford to take the gamble.
You *might* get a 50-50 split at a 75% shot, but I don't think it would even get there at 50%.
Take the million! It's guaranteed.
Low risk compared to the reward, probably the lowest you will find. If your risk profile won't accommodate this, you probably wear a condom when masterbating.