Show of HandsShow of Hands

Show Of Hands May 20th, 2017 7:08pm

Do you think the unemployment rate (currently 4.4%) will be higher or lower a year from today?

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05/23/17 11:55 am

We're already at basically full employment. It can only stay the same or get worse from here

05/21/17 5:20 pm

Higher, not because of anything political, just population growth and increased automation

ptellini GET OVER HERE
05/21/17 10:31 am

I'm quite confident the unemployment will lower.

CAModerate California
05/21/17 8:53 am

It will go higher. 5% or less is fractional unemployment. There will also ways be an unemployment number. Additionally this number is not a real summation of the unemployed. This is just a number based on unemployment claims. Most are out of their states time limit for benefits.

However in the tech & financial/accounting fields there are more jobs than candidates.

unnamed738 USA
05/21/17 8:33 am

It will almost certainly be lower, unless we go into an unexpected recession. We are not yet at full employment, and our growth rate is slowly increasing.

Jazzy5 USA
05/21/17 7:30 am

It is higher, many gave up under the past administration. I hope the Democrats get on board to support the middle class with lower taxes, jobs, jobs, HC, better schools...

Kahunahammer west
05/21/17 6:24 am

Trump will create more jobs by ten fold compared to Obama, but can anyone repair the lost work ethic?

Kahunahammer west
05/21/17 11:50 am

Yes! Especially when you take into account the job killing laws like the ACA and the Obama lunch and using the EPA as a weapon to eliminate coal and oil jobs. Look at how many fat women he got to exercise that first weekend after he beat Hillofbeans. Lol

outlaw393 My body, my choice
05/21/17 1:01 am

Actually it's more like 24.4%

Zod Above Pugetropolis
05/20/17 6:11 pm

Probably a little higher. Not necessarily because Trump screwed something else up, although I'm sure he will, but because the current levels are very, probably unsustainably, low.

112112321 pleb
05/20/17 5:52 pm

Slightly, but not considerably higher

auntiesamm Lake Stevens WA
05/20/17 4:37 pm

It is 3.3% in Orange County, CA today.

rambo088 kansas
05/20/17 4:07 pm

About the same. Unless we do something stupid like impose tariffs

Gunfighter06 Iowa, since 1846
05/20/17 3:49 pm

Stable. I don't think it will change more than .25% either way.

LaReine Communist Lesbian
05/20/17 3:36 pm

Is this the figure that doesn't include long term unemployment?

themahcrow Louisiana
05/20/17 7:03 pm

I feel these numbers are BS.

05/20/17 12:53 pm

I think it'll go up but who cares, really? Does this number really tell us anything in this day and age?

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 12:59 pm

Yeah, it tells us how many people are not working but actively looking for work. Along with other broader measures of unemployment, it's a good measure of the overall health of the labor market, which his highly correlated with overall macroeconomic health.

05/20/17 1:04 pm

I don't think U6 is the leading indicator most people think it is. Otherwise you would see a much tighter correlation between current numbers and what many people (myself included) say is lackluster GDP growth.

05/20/17 1:05 pm

I mean U3. Typo.

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 1:31 pm

That's why I find it most useful to look at all of them in combination. Together they give a lot of insight into the current condition of the labor market.

There are competing theories as to why the traditional unemployment / GDP link has been broken since 2008, personally I'm in the secular slowdown camp. It would seem we just reach full employment at a lower growth rate now. Whatever theory you prefer, I don't see any reason to conclude that unemployment is suddenly a useless indicator.

05/20/17 8:09 pm

Not useless but very incomplete. U5/U6 helps but it's not just discouraged workers. The long-term unemployed rate is still very high and there are many other indicators that we are far from full employment.

05/20/17 8:16 pm

Nice talking to someone who knows what secular stagnation is though. even if I don't agree that it's what is happening. :)

Okie1967 Lets go brandon
05/20/17 12:39 pm

Lower given that we have somebody in the WH that doesn't hate business, success, jobs, white people, history, America, etc.

Henry123 Connecticut
05/20/17 12:26 pm

Unemployment rate means virtually nothing. It is not a measure of how many people are working.

BamaGirl ROLL TIDE from Texas
05/20/17 12:20 pm

Higher or the same as more people who had given up re-enter the workforce they won't significantly impact the official numbers, because they weren't being counted.

BamaGirl ROLL TIDE from Texas
05/20/17 12:22 pm

Also, I think officially it is impossible or nearly impossible for it to go much lower.

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 1:03 pm

Not necessarily impossible, it's just that structural unemployment in the US is about 4%, has been for years. Efficiency wages and technology basically guarantee it'll never go lower than that unless the economy is overheating.

swjboucher Just Run
05/20/17 1:49 pm

I agree with Bama

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 2:19 pm

I don't think anyone here is in disagreement, I was just expanding on why unemployment isn't likely to go lower.

CoffeeNow Powderpuff Leftist
05/20/17 12:20 pm

4% is around what economists call "full employment". It will rise obviously

Acow Where is the Source
05/20/17 4:13 pm

Thank you for someone who actually knows something about employment rates and isn't blabbering on about partisan crap.

05/20/17 5:06 pm

In economics class, I was told it was 5%, and we are currently below full employment.

CoffeeNow Powderpuff Leftist
05/20/17 5:21 pm

You may be right I don't remember the exact number. Point is we're really close

05/20/17 5:23 pm

Either way it is still going to rise.

brisket Illinois
05/20/17 12:13 pm

Higher we are due for a downturn.

political Georgia
05/20/17 12:10 pm

Higher - as people enter the workforce, there will be more unemployment.

Nemacyst No Lives Matter
05/20/17 12:09 pm

This user is currently being ignored

Nemacyst No Lives Matter
05/20/17 1:27 pm

This user is currently being ignored

DexNav Location
05/20/17 8:37 pm

Said no non-Trump voter ever. Which means said no politically knowledgeable person ever.

Nemacyst No Lives Matter
05/21/17 6:00 am

This user is currently being ignored

DexNav Location
05/21/17 6:29 pm

When did I say I supported Clinton? And sorry, I'm not a conspiracy theorist.