Show of HandsShow of Hands

Show Of Hands May 20th, 2017 7:08pm

Do you think the unemployment rate (currently 4.4%) will be higher or lower a year from today?

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05/23/17 11:55 am

We're already at basically full employment. It can only stay the same or get worse from here

05/21/17 5:20 pm

Higher, not because of anything political, just population growth and increased automation

ptellini Homosuperior
05/21/17 10:31 am

I'm quite confident the unemployment will lower.

CAModerate California
05/21/17 8:53 am

It will go higher. 5% or less is fractional unemployment. There will also ways be an unemployment number. Additionally this number is not a real summation of the unemployed. This is just a number based on unemployment claims. Most are out of their states time limit for benefits.

However in the tech & financial/accounting fields there are more jobs than candidates.

unnamed738 USA
05/21/17 8:33 am

It will almost certainly be lower, unless we go into an unexpected recession. We are not yet at full employment, and our growth rate is slowly increasing.

Jazzy5 USA
05/21/17 7:30 am

It is higher, many gave up under the past administration. I hope the Democrats get on board to support the middle class with lower taxes, jobs, jobs, HC, better schools...

Kahunahammer west
05/21/17 6:24 am

Trump will create more jobs by ten fold compared to Obama, but can anyone repair the lost work ethic?

Kahunahammer west
05/21/17 11:50 am

Yes! Especially when you take into account the job killing laws like the ACA and the Obama lunch and using the EPA as a weapon to eliminate coal and oil jobs. Look at how many fat women he got to exercise that first weekend after he beat Hillofbeans. Lol

outlaw393 Wisconsin
05/21/17 1:01 am

Actually it's more like 24.4%

Zod Above Pugetropolis
05/20/17 6:11 pm

Probably a little higher. Not necessarily because Trump screwed something else up, although I'm sure he will, but because the current levels are very, probably unsustainably, low.

112112321 pleb
05/20/17 5:52 pm

Slightly, but not considerably higher

auntiesamm Orange County CA
05/20/17 4:37 pm

It is 3.3% in Orange County, CA today.

rambo088 kansas
05/20/17 4:07 pm

About the same. Unless we do something stupid like impose tariffs

Gunfighter06 Iowa, since 1846
05/20/17 3:49 pm

Stable. I don't think it will change more than .25% either way.

LaReine Communist Lesbian
05/20/17 3:36 pm

Is this the figure that doesn't include long term unemployment?

themahcrow Louisiana
05/20/17 7:03 pm

I feel these numbers are BS.

05/20/17 12:53 pm

I think it'll go up but who cares, really? Does this number really tell us anything in this day and age?

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 12:59 pm

Yeah, it tells us how many people are not working but actively looking for work. Along with other broader measures of unemployment, it's a good measure of the overall health of the labor market, which his highly correlated with overall macroeconomic health.

05/20/17 1:04 pm

I don't think U6 is the leading indicator most people think it is. Otherwise you would see a much tighter correlation between current numbers and what many people (myself included) say is lackluster GDP growth.

05/20/17 1:05 pm

I mean U3. Typo.

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 1:31 pm

That's why I find it most useful to look at all of them in combination. Together they give a lot of insight into the current condition of the labor market.

There are competing theories as to why the traditional unemployment / GDP link has been broken since 2008, personally I'm in the secular slowdown camp. It would seem we just reach full employment at a lower growth rate now. Whatever theory you prefer, I don't see any reason to conclude that unemployment is suddenly a useless indicator.

05/20/17 8:09 pm

Not useless but very incomplete. U5/U6 helps but it's not just discouraged workers. The long-term unemployed rate is still very high and there are many other indicators that we are far from full employment.

05/20/17 8:16 pm

Nice talking to someone who knows what secular stagnation is though. even if I don't agree that it's what is happening. :)

Okie1967 Lets go brandon
05/20/17 12:39 pm

Lower given that we have somebody in the WH that doesn't hate business, success, jobs, white people, history, America, etc.

Henry123 Connecticut
05/20/17 12:26 pm

Unemployment rate means virtually nothing. It is not a measure of how many people are working.

BamaGirl ROLL TIDE from Arizona
05/20/17 12:20 pm

Higher or the same as more people who had given up re-enter the workforce they won't significantly impact the official numbers, because they weren't being counted.

BamaGirl ROLL TIDE from Arizona
05/20/17 12:22 pm

Also, I think officially it is impossible or nearly impossible for it to go much lower.

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 1:03 pm

Not necessarily impossible, it's just that structural unemployment in the US is about 4%, has been for years. Efficiency wages and technology basically guarantee it'll never go lower than that unless the economy is overheating.

swjboucher Just Run
05/20/17 1:49 pm

I agree with Bama

Vincere Seattle
05/20/17 2:19 pm

I don't think anyone here is in disagreement, I was just expanding on why unemployment isn't likely to go lower.

CoffeeNow Powderpuff Leftist
05/20/17 12:20 pm

4% is around what economists call "full employment". It will rise obviously

Acow Where is the Source
05/20/17 4:13 pm

Thank you for someone who actually knows something about employment rates and isn't blabbering on about partisan crap.

05/20/17 5:06 pm

In economics class, I was told it was 5%, and we are currently below full employment.

CoffeeNow Powderpuff Leftist
05/20/17 5:21 pm

You may be right I don't remember the exact number. Point is we're really close

05/20/17 5:23 pm

Either way it is still going to rise.

brisket Illinois
05/20/17 12:13 pm

Higher we are due for a downturn.

political Georgia
05/20/17 12:10 pm

Higher - as people enter the workforce, there will be more unemployment.

Nemacyst No Lives Matter
05/20/17 12:09 pm

This user is currently being ignored

Nemacyst No Lives Matter
05/20/17 1:27 pm

This user is currently being ignored

DexNav Location
05/20/17 8:37 pm

Said no non-Trump voter ever. Which means said no politically knowledgeable person ever.

Nemacyst No Lives Matter
05/21/17 6:00 am

This user is currently being ignored

DexNav Location
05/21/17 6:29 pm

When did I say I supported Clinton? And sorry, I'm not a conspiracy theorist.