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gluxford1 December 18th, 2016 4:21am

These states are solid red: Arizona, Missouri, Utah, Idaho, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Alaska, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Oklahoma, Indiana, and Wyoming.

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FloridaPopulist Nationalist Right
12/18/16 8:26 am

Arizona was only a 4 point victory for trump and Georgia was 6 points I'd say there lean red but trending blue

gluxford1 Arizona
12/18/16 8:44 am

Arizona and Georgia were actually both 5 point victories for Trump. A victory margin of 5 points or more for a candidate in elections is considered to be either solid red or solid blue. Also, conservatives at the state and federal levels in both states were reelected in double digit landslides. Neither of those states are trending blue. That is a media myth.

FloridaPopulist Nationalist Right
12/18/16 9:31 am

Trump won Arizona by 4.1%. 49.5% to 45.4% and I believe Romney won by an 11 percent margin. Georgia was a 5.7% win for trump. 51.3% to 45.6%. In 2000 bush won Georgia by 12 points and that's when the democrats still had some support from moderate southern whites. In 2004 against northeastern liberal John Kerry he won by 16 points. And despite doing 2 points better then Romney in the national popular vote, trump had a lower margin of victory in Georgia, were Romney won by 7

FloridaPopulist Nationalist Right
12/18/16 9:33 am

Sorry 9 point victory for Romney in Arizona, following the national popular vote trend it should have Been an 11 point victory but instead was a 4 point victory

gluxford1 Arizona
12/18/16 9:38 am

Arizona was 50% for Trump and 45% Clinton. You also glossed over the state level results. Also, Clinton didn't improve on Obama's 2012 vote percentage in Arizona, but Trump seemed to underperform. This tells me that some conservatives and moderate Republicans in Arizona that turned out for Romney didn't turn out this time around while Democrats turned out at about the same levels. So, the state isn't really becoming more competitive. Conservatives just didn't vote like they should. The Mormon component also probably played a factor in that. Did you here about all those people giving up and leaving the long voting lines on Election Day?

gluxford1 Arizona
12/18/16 9:44 am

I also expect Trump to expand his victory margin in Arizona in 2020. Republican candidates have a history of expanding their victories in Arizona when they are up for reelection. Trump just has to follow through with his promises first, and I think he will. He also must appoint strong conservatives to the Supreme Court. 2018 should also tell us more about the direction in which Arizona is heading. If conservative candidates are once again reelected by large margins in that year's midterms, and I think they will, we will know for sure that Arizona is solid red. That will just cement what I already know.

Senate101 San Diego
12/17/16 11:50 pm

For the most part, although some do still have blue streaks left.

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gluxford1 Arizona
12/18/16 7:32 am

Only in isolated counties with no electoral weight.

Senate101 San Diego
12/18/16 9:25 am

Well, it depends on your definition of solid red. If you mean in presidential elections, then yes. But it gets much hazier other than that. Montana and Louisiana have Democratic governors.

Senate101 San Diego
12/18/16 9:25 am

Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana also have Democratic senators.

gluxford1 Arizona
12/18/16 9:31 am

I'm mainly talking about presidential elections and state level government.

Senate101 San Diego
12/18/16 10:07 am

Then you are correct. Currently those states are solid red, with the exception of the two governors. A shame, too, because Democrats used to have some footing there.

gluxford1 Arizona
12/18/16 10:09 am

If they keep lurching to the radical left, which they are, they will never have a footing there again.

Senate101 San Diego
12/18/16 10:23 am

Exactly. Already we have lost the south, and while I have hope that we can make it competitive again, it's very difficult and unlikely. If we lost the rust belt, we are history. We don't even have a Democratic government in Vermont, Massachusetts, or New York.

Praetorianus Fair enough.
12/17/16 9:29 pm

Looks like it though I wasn't sure about the Dakotas.

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