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GrandmaALiCE July 7th, 2013 12:56pm

Are you safer in an airplane, statistically speaking, shortly after another airplane has crashed?

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Jungle in the dog house
07/07/13 3:39 pm

The odds don't change.

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TreeHugs Oregon
07/07/13 2:33 pm

I've always believed that when its been a long time since a crash pilots, traffic controllers and mechanics become too relaxed and are more likely to make mistakes, but when there's been a crash they are more focused on the importance of their jobs.

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bballard92 taste the rainbow
07/07/13 1:39 pm

Each flight carries its own set of statistics. Today's crash is not based on tomorrow's.

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fredd TrumpLand
07/07/13 9:53 am

It's irrelevant. The next plane has no memory. Without additional knowledge (perhaps that airline has let maintenance lapse) the risk is the same.

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TopsQueen Oregon Coast
07/07/13 9:05 am

I think you're safer in airplane than a car. You're not going to have another airplane where someone's been doing meth, pot or alcohol and gets behind the wheel.

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Emily33 North Carolina
07/07/13 9:53 am

More people get killed in car crashes than plane crashes, but some people just prefer to be in control and feel like they are safer when they are in control

GrandmaALiCE Rocky Mtns aerial view
07/07/13 6:51 am

It's interesting. As I mentioned in my previous poll, I also modeled this question on a discussion in the plane crash poll.

The basic statistical principle is how (if at all) an event effects the probability of a second event.

When I framed ...

GrandmaALiCE Rocky Mtns aerial view
07/07/13 6:54 am

... it in the context of winning the lottery, I got a 100% (last time I looked) agreement that the two events are independent.

When I put the question in the context of a plane crash, the results are (so far) 50% each way.

It would appear that ...

GrandmaALiCE Rocky Mtns aerial view
07/07/13 6:55 am

... people "do the math" differently, depending somewhat on their feelings.

thebarr
07/07/13 10:50 am

You are outlining a classical statistical error, the "Monte Carlo fallacy". Humans are very bad at analyzing data when emotions are involved.

Emily33 North Carolina
07/07/13 6:04 am

Either the same or more so, assuming pilots and everyone would be even more careful after a crash occurs

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