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Praetorianus April 26th, 2016 4:12am

RNC member Randy Evans said Trump will gain the nomination if he gets to at least 1100. Do you think he's right?

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CMD1973 Oxford iowa
04/29/16 5:04 pm

This is a hard one to predict. The RNC may have a plan but the delegates may go their own way. I am looking forward to it. Most past conventions are just coronations.

RoDe Latinus wordsus
04/26/16 1:45 pm

It's be smart not to ignore Evans. He seems to have clout in the RNC, but that being said he is just one member, and his only giving his opinion. It's one that neither popular nor rare. It's focuses essentially on how many unbound delegates Trump could get on board. There really aren't any rules to my knowledge preventing essentially the purchasing of delegates, and Trumps got a deep wallet. Essentially the debate is over how close Trump needs to get to 1237 to win it with the addition of persuaded unbound delegates. It's a question we likely won't know until the first vote of the convention.

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geoag02 Dallas, TX
04/26/16 1:19 pm

I think Trump's only chance to win is if he does it on the first ballot.

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geoag02 Dallas, TX
04/26/16 1:25 pm

Starting on ballot #2 Kasich is likely to try to send his delegates to Trump, and Rubio will try to send his to Cruz. Lots of delegates that were pledged to Trump or Cruz on ballot #1 will be free agents on #2 and thus free to switch sides so the number of delegates each has "to start with" could be a moving target.

geoag02 Dallas, TX
04/26/16 1:28 pm

I think Cruz has more delegates that are his supporters that are pledged to Trump in round 1 than Trump has. So the scales are likely to tip in Cruz's favor on second and later ballots.

TomLaney1 Jesus is Lord
04/25/16 10:42 pm

No. The number is 1237.

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mim formerly 97123
04/25/16 10:41 pm

No matter the GOP nominee, Hillary will be the next POTUS.

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Praetorianus Fair enough.
04/26/16 12:05 am

Wishful thinking. Possible but anything but sure.

PrinceOberyn Vive LEmpereur
04/25/16 9:28 pm

Hopefully not. This election is getting boring. I, as Prince of SOH, demand a open convention!

He's also a dangerous demagogue and should be kept form having any political power.

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Praetorianus Fair enough.
04/25/16 9:59 pm

Question is whether an open convention would change anything. I won't go out on a limb but let's wait until tomorrow which I call the mini super Tuesday to see what happens. Imo, California is most crucial but that's a way off. Stand by 😎

madconservative President Trump
04/25/16 10:31 pm

Better than Hillary

TomLaney1 Jesus is Lord
04/25/16 10:45 pm

Praet, you have to wait for Indiana on May 3rd. That's when it swings back Cruz' way.

RoDe Latinus wordsus
04/26/16 1:42 pm

Prae- between all of the states today, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, there are a cumulative of 90 delegates at stake, 5 fewer than NY state alone at 95 delegates. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won them all as has been predicted, which wouldn't alter how he's tracking in terms of the delegate threshold.

California is important not only because it's large, but because it's the only real spot on the board where he can change the dynamic. These wins today were chalked up in the delegate predictions a month ago, the place were he can beat those predictions and alter his trajectory is in California.

Praetorianus Fair enough.
04/26/16 6:56 pm

Today's result is important not bc of those few delegates but bc Trump is anything BUT losing momentum and on average won 20% over the projections I've seen.

RoDe Latinus wordsus
04/26/16 9:17 pm

"and on average won 20% over the projections I've seen."

I'm confused by what you're saying there, are you saying he's been beating the predictions you've been following by an average 20%?

Praetorianus Fair enough.
04/26/16 10:50 pm

Yes. The projection on bing.com had him at about 40%, but results were over 60.

RoDe Latinus wordsus
04/26/16 11:05 pm

Are you talking about NY? I'm not sure where Bing generates their sources, but my go to aggregator is realclearpolitics.com They show him beating the polls by 7%. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html

I was curious how all of the candidates were doing compared to the polls earlier in the season so I did the math. I haven't updated it in a while, but through the first 14 primaries the candidates' average deviation in their electoral performance from their polling performance was as follows: Trump +2%, Cruz +4.2%, Kasich +1.12%, and the since departed's, Rubio +3.7% and Carson -.8%. I'm curious to see how that's changed, I'll probably update the numbers soon.

TomLaney1 Jesus is Lord
04/27/16 1:17 am

Let us know, please. I've slept since I took Statistics. 😃

MJSeals J.D.
04/25/16 9:22 pm

Trump would need to sway too many delegates for that to happen. This goes to a second ballot, it's basically all bets off.

JackQHu Durham, NC
04/25/16 9:13 pm

According to polling, he will get 1218 delegates (If Ted Cruz doesn't try to steal the delegates.)

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Praetorianus Fair enough.
04/25/16 9:18 pm

I think GoP should finally realize that, as much as the establishment and mainstream press hates it, Trump will be the nominee unless some of the mean tricks work Cruz and Kasich come up with. If you sabotage DT, you'll get Hillary.