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Shazam April 6th, 2016 2:32am

Sanders has won a higher percentage of the total to-date voter delegates in the DNC than Cruz has in the GOP. The reports are saying he had no chance against HRC, but Trump is finished because of Cruz' performance. Any one else corn fused by this?

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citethesource Socialist and Atheist
04/07/16 4:28 pm

Sanders has a deficit that won't be made up. All of the Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally. He has to win a lot and win by a lot to overcome her lead.

Cruz is looking for a contested convention, not an outright victory. Instead of looking for 50%+1 delegates, all he needs to do is keep Trump from getting to that point. He also has Kasich along to help. Cruz also has the help of the winner-takes-all layout of the GOP primaries/caucuses.

Sanders needs to be offensively powerful to win.

Cruz needs to be defensively powerful to keep Trump from winning.

04/06/16 9:18 pm

Yes they like to bring doom and gloom out for the races

Malekithe We have assumed control
04/06/16 4:37 pm

Story changes every primary.
When Trump crushes him in NY, NJ and PA, they will say its over

PeppyHare Do a barrel roll
04/06/16 10:17 am

The democrat race is between two people and is complete proportional, the Republican race is not proportional (some winner take all/winner take the at large delegates) and also there are tons of delegates held by more than 2 candidates... Basically no one has a path to the magic number.

FIAT2LUX On Planet Earth
04/06/16 8:19 am

Well, I don't believe I've ever been corn fused before.

lovesquirt Hawkeyes
04/06/16 2:35 pm

Sounds like a Monsanto GMO experiment.

iBakes California
04/06/16 7:21 am

The GOP delegates are spread thin, the Dem delegates never were. Of course a race with 2 viable candidates will lead to higher percentages of delegates won than a race with 3-6 viable candidates.

shygal47 Florida east coast
04/06/16 6:17 am

Each party has a different number of delegates in every state awarded in differing ways ... comparing the simple totals of Sanders and Cruz is not a reasonable comparison. You have to get into statistical analysis in order to compare the numbers.

Shazam Scaramouche, OH
04/06/16 6:25 am

I actually wasn't comparing numbers, I was comparing percentages of delegates won. Last I looked, Cruz was in the low 30 percents, and Sanders was in the mid 40 percents. That was a week or so ago. I doubt that WI has really changed that much for either.

shygal47 Florida east coast
04/06/16 6:39 am

I have been watching various pundits this AM trying to figure out what the real status is ... no one can seem to provide an answer that agrees with any other pundit. That's the the thing about stats - you make them say whatever you want.

PartyJustin R.O.C.K. in the R.O.C.
04/07/16 9:32 am

It's pretty straightforward. The Dem contests award delegates proportionately, and Bernie hasn't been winning by margins that will allow him to catch up and overtake Clinton. Unless his winning margins grow and his losing margins thin he has no chance, and there's been no sign of that happening.

All Cruz has to do is win a few more winner-take-all states and Trump can't get to a majority of delegates. It's still possible that he'll win before the convention, but is becoming increasingly unlikely especially now that it's essentially a two person race.

04/06/16 5:15 am

No one will get 1237 in the GOP, and Trump is very unlikely to get the nomination in a contested convention.

The DNC on the other hand has it rigged. Bernie won't win the majority of the delegates, one because of super delegates (sham) and two because it's rigged for Hillary. It was supposed to be last time but Obama stole it.

Shazam Scaramouche, OH
04/06/16 6:27 am

DOM - the SDs are an issue. No doubt about it. The idea that the GOP does not have SDs is absolutely incorrect though. They do, it's just not discussed/reported as much.

04/06/16 6:38 am

Yes but the percentage of super delegates in the GOP is less than half of the percentage of dem delegates. GOP SDs are bound by the voting of voters, dem SDs are not.

Either way, the reason people (also media) talk about Sanders being finished is because it's rigged for Hillary. No way it's going to come close to what the GOP contest will.

citethesource Socialist and Atheist
04/07/16 4:31 pm

I am a rigged person? I'm only supporting Clinton because the DNC rigged my vote?

Please, tell me how the DNC forced me to support Clinton.

04/07/16 7:37 pm

That's not what I was saying. You're not rigged to support her. I just think the system is.

Cite, you are rigged like the terminator is rigged. To destroy. Everyone in your path, boom, gone.

liam2013 iowa
04/06/16 3:40 am

Trump isn't exactly finished he just will have a harder time winning the enough delegates to win the before the convention. What happens there if It goes to a second ballot is anybody quess. Sanders even though he is getting more delegate in the caucus states and those states he is favored it will not be enough to overtake Hillarys lead. Most of the remaining larger states favor her.

JHawk3205 MD
04/05/16 10:36 pm

Trumps momentum has been strong but dipping. Hillary's momentum has been spotty. Sanders enjoyed the benefits of caucus states and open primary states, but has an uphill battle with a bunch of big states, NY, PA, and CA..

JHawk3205 MD
04/05/16 10:37 pm

I think that if trump, especially with the talk of a brokered/open/contested convention, and him possibly still going for a third party run, is admitting his campaign isn't as assuredly and inherently successful as he suggests.

JHawk3205 MD
04/05/16 10:39 pm

The sanders problem comes more from superdelegates than the dnc. That isn't to say the dnc and Debbie wasserman Schultz isn't giving him trouble; just the superdelegates, despite no democratic primary being decided by them, is coming

JHawk3205 MD
04/05/16 10:40 pm

Down to them now, as they're not voting proportionally this far, and NY superdelegates have already vowed voted to Clinton. Thats more of a party/establishment problem that will likely come back to bite them in the arse

JHawk3205 MD
04/05/16 10:42 pm

But if his campaign has proven anything, it's that the will of the people is strong, and they are enthusiastic to make their voices heard. Cruz is absolutely overconfident, but I'm not ruling out my trump-troll candidate theory

usaftw123 lolrektville
04/05/16 9:01 pm

It's the super delegates

political Georgia
04/05/16 8:28 pm

Mainly because some of the GOP candidates who have already dropped out possess delegates.

Zod Above Pugetropolis
04/05/16 8:23 pm

Both parties are promoting what they wish was true. The fairy tale is, if you say a thing often enough it becomes the truth. Sadly, at least one of these probably will.

Shazam Scaramouche, OH
04/05/16 7:45 pm

*has no chance. Of all the typos I make on a daily basis, the had/has one is among the most frustrating!

getupbaby South City
04/06/16 2:07 am

Yeah, I was corn fused for a moment.

Shazam Scaramouche, OH
04/06/16 10:30 am

GET - my mom has been saying that for decades. Has crept into my entire family's vernacular.