Do you think we will ever be able to predict the weather 1 week in advance with perfect accuracy?
Have you guys heard of Cliff Mass?
Because he basically already does.
The only possible way to do that would be in the far future once time machines are invented, but it probably won't matter anyway because by that point we would have full control of the weather.
Accuracy? Already can. Accuracy and precision? Not a chance.
Not perfect but close to it
Eventually yes since eventually we'll be engaged in constant weather manipulation
Who cares meteorology is the gayest unit of science I love pretty much every other unit of science
Tons of variables some potentially unknown and some are to complicated to calculate accurately.
Not in Missouri... lol
Not on Missouri... lol
We'll make are own.
Yes: in the year 2525-another 325 degree day predicted for an earth devoid of atmosphere and oceans.
LOL global warming, brought to you by the Weather Channel
Look at all of the optimism people have for the future.
considering it is all curve fits on empirical data and physics, gathered by sensors, satellites ... it will come down to density of sensors, satellites and their accuracy.
That's thinking based on our technology. I'm thinking based on the potential of future tech.
future tech will still depend on sensors and curve fits ... satellites sensors may get replaced ... I still doubt it would work with that great an accuracy.
That is what you think based on our current technology. Think of it like sci-fi from the victorian era. They thought of the same stuff we have now, but the technology was based on what they had at the time.
I do thermo simulations gor a living and I just cannot wrap my mind across molecular level of pressure different ial movement can be simulated without data. I try to look at it subjectively ... I strongly doubt it ... but to each their own ... peace!
We can't already?
Then why do you believe in global warming?!
Because local weather is different than global climate.
You don't believe in 7-day forecasts, but you believe in climate forecasts, which are crap BTW.
The forecasts don't matter much to me. There are plenty of observable effects right now.
Like the ice caps growing...
spend 60 seconds watching the trend over time.
Of course! With some tricks I've learned from the IPCC, I will now predict next week's weather.
Chance of rain: 100%**
*+/- ∞%, 3% CI
**if rain doesn't fall, it's hiding in the clouds, you idiot.
Mother Nature is much to fickle
We will have to be able to control it to predict it.
Weather is a chaotic system. It's just not possible. Given the same initial conditions you can end up at very different results every time (the butterfly effect). Never believe long term forecasts for weather (climate, yes, not weather).
PS- I'm a PhD candidate in atmospheric science. Although my expertise is in climate dynamics, I've taken many weather classes
only if we are controling it.
Weather isn't perfectly predictable. I'm not anything close to an expert but I do know there are various unpredictable outside factors. A natural disaster can mean storms in another region, for example.
Ever? Ya. I think at some point we will figure out how to control the weather too.
I believe they already are
With an infinite amount of days and an infinite amount of guesses it will and probably has happened at least once in the past
Not without terraforming.. And even with as much terraforming as we could manage, we'd still only be able to predict in small areas with better accuracy, not complete accuracy. That and climate control. But theres no point..
Weather is chaotic enough that a butterfly in China could cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.
weather reports for northern idaho are pretty accurate most of the time
No. We'll never be able to predict anything with perfect accuracy.
Prediction: The sun will still exist tomorrow.
Let me know what happens...
You're probably right, but that proves nothing. You're alive today, you'll probably be alive tomorrow too - but there are no guarantees. Don't confuse probability with certainty.
There is no probability involved. Science has guaranteed the sun's existence well into the future.
My life, however, could be taken from me tonight. It happens to many people everyday.
And if you want, give me your email and I'll predict whether the sun will exist tomorrow or not every day at 11:59 for the rest of your life with 100% accuracy.
To be fair, BQ, you did say accuracy, not certainty.
And to be equally fair, a rogue black hole may eat the sun sometime tonight.
"Perfect" accuracy. How does that not imply certainty?
Freeedom, I don't share my personal info with people who give me cause to question their common sense.
Doopy, a rogue black hole would take some time to devour the sun. It wouldn't happen instantly, which is why I wouldn't extend my prediction out too far.
Bethany, I can give you my prediction with 100% certainty.
And obviously you would never give me your email, I wouldn't want you to have mine either. And you may have COMMON sense, but that's about it.
Your original statement, "we will NEVER be able to predict ANYTHING with perfect accuracy," is just flat out wrong.
I could predict every time I am about to speak. There is nothing special about that, but it is SOMETHING.
Also, your original statement is a prediction in itself, which invalidates your point because if we could never predict anything with perfect accuracy than your statement/prediction/opinion is most definitely wrong.
Sad that you've apparently never bothered studying any philosophy. Your arrogance will likely bite you in the ass someday.
I took 2 philosophy classes in college and got an A in both.
You know what they say about people who assume things.
For someone who is so versed in philosophy, you should be able to see that your prediction cannibalizes itself.
GOOD JOB. GOLD STAR FOR YOU. We're either of those epistemology classes? I doubt it.
My comment would be self-defeating had I proclaimed its perfect accuracy. I did not. Do not *assume* colloquial shorthand to make broader statements.
You said we would never be able to perfectly predict ANYTHING!
Don't feed me a line of colloquial BS.
You meant what you said and now you're trying to step it back because you know you're wrong.
"'Perfect' accuracy. How does that not imply certainty?"
By not implying it.
If a man sets up 5 targets and fires 5 pellets of buckshot at them, and hits all 5 in one shot, he had perfect, extremely uncertain accuracy.
Freedom, a collapse of the Higgs field to a lower minimum energy level would create a shockwave of destruction at nearly c, which could have already destroyed the sun, and we wouldn't know for 8 minutes.
A really big really fast black hole could also destroy, if not consume, the sun in 24 hours.
False comparison. You're equating post hoc happenstance with predictability, and applying the former as though it drove the latter. The question was about *prediction*, not action.
No, it's not. The definition of accuracy does not change with tense. You're arguing a non sequitur.
and Freeedom was right, your assertion is necessarily self-refuting anyways. I don't know where you studied epistemology, but something failed.
Doopy, if the Theory behind the Higgs field holds true then that is a possibility and I would be wrong about my sun prediction. Good thinking!
But there are certainly things that can be 100% accurately predicted.
True. Such as, "given infinite time, a uranium-235 atom will certainly decay."
The weather said it was supposed to be snowing and low thirties in Laramie Friday. Now it's supposed to be high forties.
On Monday that is.
It's more likely to predict what will happen in a week than to predict what happened at the beginning of the universe.
Definitionally, since predictions are about the future, not the past.
Yeah well I suck.
For the power users, 45% of web users say "yes," so 55% of web users say "no"? Kinda pessimistic isn't it?
But why does it look odd to me that over 80% of SOHers vote no, but only 55% of web using SOHers vote no. I didn't get much sleep last night so I'm having s hard time figuring this, is this poll saying a lot of SOHers don't use the web?
I'm thinking most would be using soh through their phones & tablets, but that's a wild guess on my part.
But regardless of whether they have a cellular network connection or a wifi connection it's the same web, the same Internet.
Besides, I use SOH on my phone 95% of the time and the web about 5% of the time. I prefer the phone but using the web still works nearly as well.
Using the Internet to vote and using the web to vote are only slightly different on language, but I take the first as using an Internet connection and the second as using a web browser to vote. Does that make sense? Or am I misunderstanding where
You are going?
But doesn't a web browser require an Internet connection? It did in my Netscape days, it still does when I use Firefox, Chrome, or Safari.
It does, but the emphasis of the web in this context is that SoH was access through a computer rather. Don't get me wrong, you're totally right about everything.
No, that's about as arrogant as thinking man can influence global climates in a significant way, either positively or negatively.
Butterfly effect. Even if we predict it, there's a more than likely chance that the result will change.
Probably not, but I guess it depends upon who "we" is.
Not in Minnesota.
No, there are way too many unpredictable variables that are as insignificant as the amount of breaths people take on a given day.
No that's why it's called weather
Not unless we happen to have a perfect GUESS!!!!!!!
Not until we can control the weather.
No way! Chaos theory, just like life!
Ever? Ever is a very long time and most anything is possible, so I want a maybe option. Don't see it happening anytime soon though.
Depends if civilization advances or deteriorates
Normally that's what I'd say. However, due to the nature of weather it'd be impossible. You'd have to be omniscient or controlling the weather to do so. Simply too many unpredictable variables.
You never know. We might just not possess the scientific capability yet. I mean, there was a time when I'm sure people thought space travel completely impossible too.
The do here in Florida. Chance of rain from May to November. Nailed it.
I'd be happy with one day....
No such thing as perfect prediction of a chaotic system like the weather. We can increase the chance of success but never to 100%.
Yes, when we control it.
No, not even with a perfect understanding of weather, and perfect and detailed knowledge of all knowable contributing factors, there will always be unpredictable events that influence it. Fires, volcanic eruptions, even irrigation valve failures.
Way too many variables. Prediction is based on present available knowledge. That changes all the time.
No it would be impossible to do that
Key word "ever."
If humans are still around in a millions years I guarantee they will have perfected weather modeling simulations. And thus, perfect weather forecasts.
Seems a lot people have no faith in science and computers.
Some things are just too random.
Ok how about a billion years?
Too random for you maybe.
Key word is "perfect".
We can get closer and closer to perfect but you can never reach it with an inherently chaotic system.
Humans won't last nearly that long.
I'll give it to you if you think humans won't make it that far. Your answer makes complete sense. I guess I believe we will make it.
But perfection is possible given enough time.
I'll bet you a hundred bucks you are wrong. We can get together in the year 1,002,014 and see who wins.
Seriously, weather prediction is guesswork based on patterns. Pi has been computed to ten trillion digits and found no pattern. We will never predict weather perfectly.
Haha I'm game. 100 dollars in 1002014 money is like 0.0001 cents anyway.
Doppler radar is not a pattern.
The farmers almanac has done that for 300 years.
No the rotation of earth is way too unpredictable. Plus global warming.
Our forecasters can't predict it accurately one day in advance. The temperatures are always higher or lower than they say, usually higher.
I found that temperatures are fairly accurate but precipitation is not. Even 2 hour "nowcast" predictions in my weather app aren't always right. Too many imponderables and chaos factors involved.
Our weather guy used to call 12 hours out a forecast, 24 hours out an "educated guess", and anything beyond that "anybody's guess".
Ours says "Our best guess at the weather."
I always thought it they worked extra hard to be wrong when I lived in Kansas (near KC). Most days all they had to do is write down what happened today in Garden City, and call it our forecast for tomorrow.
Precipitation is so funny. In Washington, it would be raining buckets and the weatherman would be outside with his umbrella saying, "there's an 80% chance of rain." That always cracked me up.
I do like "our best guess at the weather," at least that's honest.