Show of HandsShow of Hands

Show Of Hands November 2nd, 2014 11:28pm

Do you think we will ever be able to predict the weather 1 week in advance with perfect accuracy?

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emsies Seattle
11/09/14 1:05 am

Have you guys heard of Cliff Mass?
Because he basically already does.

Obsideon Orbiting Earth
11/08/14 9:02 pm

The only possible way to do that would be in the far future once time machines are invented, but it probably won't matter anyway because by that point we would have full control of the weather.

TheMadScientist the mad laboratory
11/08/14 4:57 pm

Accuracy? Already can. Accuracy and precision? Not a chance.

11/05/14 9:53 pm

Eventually yes since eventually we'll be engaged in constant weather manipulation

11/04/14 9:58 pm

Who cares meteorology is the gayest unit of science I love pretty much every other unit of science

11/04/14 8:13 pm

Tons of variables some potentially unknown and some are to complicated to calculate accurately.

HammeringMan Gods Away On Business
11/03/14 7:14 am

Yes: in the year 2525-another 325 degree day predicted for an earth devoid of atmosphere and oceans.

theNobamist Silicon Valley
11/03/14 3:06 pm

LOL global warming, brought to you by the Weather Channel

11/03/14 6:47 am

Look at all of the optimism people have for the future.

sentiment Texas
11/03/14 8:26 am

considering it is all curve fits on empirical data and physics, gathered by sensors, satellites ... it will come down to density of sensors, satellites and their accuracy.

11/03/14 10:10 am

That's thinking based on our technology. I'm thinking based on the potential of future tech.

sentiment Texas
11/03/14 9:47 pm

future tech will still depend on sensors and curve fits ... satellites sensors may get replaced ... I still doubt it would work with that great an accuracy.

11/03/14 9:51 pm

That is what you think based on our current technology. Think of it like sci-fi from the victorian era. They thought of the same stuff we have now, but the technology was based on what they had at the time.

sentiment Texas
11/03/14 10:04 pm

I do thermo simulations gor a living and I just cannot wrap my mind across molecular level of pressure different ial movement can be simulated without data. I try to look at it subjectively ... I strongly doubt it ... but to each their own ... peace!

11/03/14 5:54 am

Then why do you believe in global warming?!

eLucidate writing
11/03/14 6:43 am

Because local weather is different than global climate.

11/03/14 12:54 pm

You don't believe in 7-day forecasts, but you believe in climate forecasts, which are crap BTW.

eLucidate writing
11/03/14 1:13 pm

The forecasts don't matter much to me. There are plenty of observable effects right now.

eLucidate writing
11/03/14 3:17 pm

spend 60 seconds watching the trend over time.

11/03/14 5:17 am

Of course! With some tricks I've learned from the IPCC, I will now predict next week's weather.
Temp: 53F*
Humidity: 89%*
Wind: 2mph*
Chance of rain: 100%**
*+/- ∞%, 3% CI
**if rain doesn't fall, it's hiding in the clouds, you idiot.

Nos4at2 demented weirdo
11/03/14 2:38 am

Mother Nature is much to fickle

weallhave1 Tennessee
11/03/14 2:17 am

We will have to be able to control it to predict it.

studentforlife Colorado
11/03/14 12:30 am

Weather is a chaotic system. It's just not possible. Given the same initial conditions you can end up at very different results every time (the butterfly effect). Never believe long term forecasts for weather (climate, yes, not weather).

studentforlife Colorado
11/03/14 12:34 am

PS- I'm a PhD candidate in atmospheric science. Although my expertise is in climate dynamics, I've taken many weather classes

JohnnyBraska Nebraska
11/03/14 12:29 am

only if we are controling it.

KAnne Atlantic City, NJ
11/03/14 12:07 am

Weather isn't perfectly predictable. I'm not anything close to an expert but I do know there are various unpredictable outside factors. A natural disaster can mean storms in another region, for example.

DeathSheep Michigan
11/03/14 12:06 am

Ever? Ya. I think at some point we will figure out how to control the weather too.

11/03/14 10:47 am

I believe they already are

11/03/14 12:06 am

With an infinite amount of days and an infinite amount of guesses it will and probably has happened at least once in the past

JHawk3205 MD
11/02/14 11:43 pm

Not without terraforming.. And even with as much terraforming as we could manage, we'd still only be able to predict in small areas with better accuracy, not complete accuracy. That and climate control. But theres no point..

trav Instagram, travisdover
11/02/14 11:37 pm

Weather is chaotic enough that a butterfly in China could cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.

Idahologger up north
11/02/14 9:04 pm

weather reports for northern idaho are pretty accurate most of the time

bethanyq Ess Eff
11/02/14 8:34 pm

No. We'll never be able to predict anything with perfect accuracy.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 8:49 pm

Prediction: The sun will still exist tomorrow.

Let me know what happens...

bethanyq Ess Eff
11/02/14 8:55 pm

You're probably right, but that proves nothing. You're alive today, you'll probably be alive tomorrow too - but there are no guarantees. Don't confuse probability with certainty.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 9:03 pm

There is no probability involved. Science has guaranteed the sun's existence well into the future.

My life, however, could be taken from me tonight. It happens to many people everyday.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 9:07 pm

And if you want, give me your email and I'll predict whether the sun will exist tomorrow or not every day at 11:59 for the rest of your life with 100% accuracy.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/02/14 11:14 pm

To be fair, BQ, you did say accuracy, not certainty.

And to be equally fair, a rogue black hole may eat the sun sometime tonight.

bethanyq Ess Eff
11/03/14 12:07 am

"Perfect" accuracy. How does that not imply certainty?

Freeedom, I don't share my personal info with people who give me cause to question their common sense.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 7:08 am

Doopy, a rogue black hole would take some time to devour the sun. It wouldn't happen instantly, which is why I wouldn't extend my prediction out too far.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 7:13 am

Bethany, I can give you my prediction with 100% certainty.

And obviously you would never give me your email, I wouldn't want you to have mine either. And you may have COMMON sense, but that's about it.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 7:16 am

Your original statement, "we will NEVER be able to predict ANYTHING with perfect accuracy," is just flat out wrong.

I could predict every time I am about to speak. There is nothing special about that, but it is SOMETHING.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 7:19 am

Also, your original statement is a prediction in itself, which invalidates your point because if we could never predict anything with perfect accuracy than your statement/prediction/opinion is most definitely wrong.

bethanyq Ess Eff
11/03/14 9:00 am

Sad that you've apparently never bothered studying any philosophy. Your arrogance will likely bite you in the ass someday.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 9:12 am

I took 2 philosophy classes in college and got an A in both.

You know what they say about people who assume things.

For someone who is so versed in philosophy, you should be able to see that your prediction cannibalizes itself.

bethanyq Ess Eff
11/03/14 9:28 am

GOOD JOB. GOLD STAR FOR YOU. We're either of those epistemology classes? I doubt it.

My comment would be self-defeating had I proclaimed its perfect accuracy. I did not. Do not *assume* colloquial shorthand to make broader statements.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 10:06 am

You said we would never be able to perfectly predict ANYTHING!

Don't feed me a line of colloquial BS.

You meant what you said and now you're trying to step it back because you know you're wrong.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/03/14 3:05 pm

"'Perfect' accuracy. How does that not imply certainty?"
By not implying it.

If a man sets up 5 targets and fires 5 pellets of buckshot at them, and hits all 5 in one shot, he had perfect, extremely uncertain accuracy.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/03/14 3:08 pm

Freedom, a collapse of the Higgs field to a lower minimum energy level would create a shockwave of destruction at nearly c, which could have already destroyed the sun, and we wouldn't know for 8 minutes.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/03/14 3:09 pm

A really big really fast black hole could also destroy, if not consume, the sun in 24 hours.

bethanyq Ess Eff
11/03/14 3:14 pm

False comparison. You're equating post hoc happenstance with predictability, and applying the former as though it drove the latter. The question was about *prediction*, not action.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/03/14 3:18 pm

No, it's not. The definition of accuracy does not change with tense. You're arguing a non sequitur.

and Freeedom was right, your assertion is necessarily self-refuting anyways. I don't know where you studied epistemology, but something failed.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/03/14 3:24 pm

Doopy, if the Theory behind the Higgs field holds true then that is a possibility and I would be wrong about my sun prediction. Good thinking!

But there are certainly things that can be 100% accurately predicted.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/03/14 3:27 pm

True. Such as, "given infinite time, a uranium-235 atom will certainly decay."

Liberatheist Mustafar
11/02/14 8:05 pm

The weather said it was supposed to be snowing and low thirties in Laramie Friday. Now it's supposed to be high forties.

11/02/14 8:00 pm

It's more likely to predict what will happen in a week than to predict what happened at the beginning of the universe.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
11/02/14 8:15 pm

Definitionally, since predictions are about the future, not the past.

11/02/14 9:24 pm

Yeah well I suck.

tdaddy Kentucky
11/02/14 7:54 pm

For the power users, 45% of web users say "yes," so 55% of web users say "no"? Kinda pessimistic isn't it?

tdaddy Kentucky
11/02/14 8:01 pm

But why does it look odd to me that over 80% of SOHers vote no, but only 55% of web using SOHers vote no. I didn't get much sleep last night so I'm having s hard time figuring this, is this poll saying a lot of SOHers don't use the web?

XercesBlue ...
11/02/14 8:49 pm

I'm thinking most would be using soh through their phones & tablets, but that's a wild guess on my part.

tdaddy Kentucky
11/02/14 9:30 pm

But regardless of whether they have a cellular network connection or a wifi connection it's the same web, the same Internet.

tdaddy Kentucky
11/02/14 9:35 pm

Besides, I use SOH on my phone 95% of the time and the web about 5% of the time. I prefer the phone but using the web still works nearly as well.

XercesBlue ...
11/02/14 9:38 pm

Using the Internet to vote and using the web to vote are only slightly different on language, but I take the first as using an Internet connection and the second as using a web browser to vote. Does that make sense? Or am I misunderstanding where

tdaddy Kentucky
11/02/14 9:42 pm

But doesn't a web browser require an Internet connection? It did in my Netscape days, it still does when I use Firefox, Chrome, or Safari.

XercesBlue ...
11/02/14 9:45 pm

It does, but the emphasis of the web in this context is that SoH was access through a computer rather. Don't get me wrong, you're totally right about everything.

sdbrev210 The Pursuit of Happiness
11/02/14 7:49 pm

No, that's about as arrogant as thinking man can influence global climates in a significant way, either positively or negatively.

Toranius California
11/02/14 7:18 pm

Butterfly effect. Even if we predict it, there's a more than likely chance that the result will change.

Liberty 4,032,064
11/02/14 7:06 pm

Probably not, but I guess it depends upon who "we" is.

2019 Tusoa
11/02/14 6:56 pm

No, there are way too many unpredictable variables that are as insignificant as the amount of breaths people take on a given day.

FarmerManE djent
11/02/14 6:52 pm

No that's why it's called weather

Kaiko385 Animalover
11/02/14 6:49 pm

Not unless we happen to have a perfect GUESS!!!!!!!

FIAT2LUX On Planet Earth
11/02/14 6:06 pm

Not until we can control the weather.

tractorman Oklahoma
11/02/14 6:04 pm

No way! Chaos theory, just like life!

Krystina Let Freedom Reign
11/02/14 6:02 pm

Ever? Ever is a very long time and most anything is possible, so I want a maybe option. Don't see it happening anytime soon though.

sigs77 Pennsylvania
11/02/14 6:04 pm

Depends if civilization advances or deteriorates

11/02/14 7:47 pm

Normally that's what I'd say. However, due to the nature of weather it'd be impossible. You'd have to be omniscient or controlling the weather to do so. Simply too many unpredictable variables.

Krystina Let Freedom Reign
11/02/14 7:59 pm

You never know. We might just not possess the scientific capability yet. I mean, there was a time when I'm sure people thought space travel completely impossible too.

tumblemonkey Florida
11/02/14 6:01 pm

The do here in Florida. Chance of rain from May to November. Nailed it.

tazmo72 Austin
11/02/14 5:59 pm

I'd be happy with one day....

fredd TrumpLand
11/02/14 5:58 pm

No such thing as perfect prediction of a chaotic system like the weather. We can increase the chance of success but never to 100%.

11/02/14 5:51 pm

Yes, when we control it.

Zod Above Pugetropolis
11/02/14 5:35 pm

No, not even with a perfect understanding of weather, and perfect and detailed knowledge of all knowable contributing factors, there will always be unpredictable events that influence it. Fires, volcanic eruptions, even irrigation valve failures.

dudley northern Virginia woods
11/02/14 5:32 pm

Way too many variables. Prediction is based on present available knowledge. That changes all the time.

11/02/14 5:28 pm

No it would be impossible to do that

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 5:22 pm

Key word "ever."

If humans are still around in a millions years I guarantee they will have perfected weather modeling simulations. And thus, perfect weather forecasts.

Seems a lot people have no faith in science and computers.

kermie gaytopia
11/02/14 5:23 pm

Some things are just too random.

fredd TrumpLand
11/02/14 6:00 pm

Key word is "perfect".

We can get closer and closer to perfect but you can never reach it with an inherently chaotic system.

kermie gaytopia
11/02/14 6:13 pm

Humans won't last nearly that long.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 6:38 pm

I'll give it to you if you think humans won't make it that far. Your answer makes complete sense. I guess I believe we will make it.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 6:40 pm

But perfection is possible given enough time.

Crawdaddy11 former LEGEND of FIRSTS
11/02/14 8:24 pm

I'll bet you a hundred bucks you are wrong. We can get together in the year 1,002,014 and see who wins.

Crawdaddy11 former LEGEND of FIRSTS
11/02/14 8:28 pm

Seriously, weather prediction is guesswork based on patterns. Pi has been computed to ten trillion digits and found no pattern. We will never predict weather perfectly.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 8:28 pm

Haha I'm game. 100 dollars in 1002014 money is like 0.0001 cents anyway.

freeedom New Hampshire
11/02/14 8:30 pm

Doppler radar is not a pattern.

Congressman Louisiana
11/02/14 5:12 pm

The farmers almanac has done that for 300 years.

11/02/14 6:59 pm

They have???

Crawdaddy11 former LEGEND of FIRSTS
11/02/14 5:09 pm

No the rotation of earth is way too unpredictable. Plus global warming.

11/02/14 4:51 pm

Our forecasters can't predict it accurately one day in advance. The temperatures are always higher or lower than they say, usually higher.

Praetorianus Fair enough.
11/02/14 5:07 pm

I found that temperatures are fairly accurate but precipitation is not. Even 2 hour "nowcast" predictions in my weather app aren't always right. Too many imponderables and chaos factors involved.

Zod Above Pugetropolis
11/02/14 5:39 pm

Our weather guy used to call 12 hours out a forecast, 24 hours out an "educated guess", and anything beyond that "anybody's guess".

SmileyMoM Lab Rat Vampire
11/02/14 5:47 pm

Ours says "Our best guess at the weather."

Zod Above Pugetropolis
11/02/14 5:59 pm

I always thought it they worked extra hard to be wrong when I lived in Kansas (near KC). Most days all they had to do is write down what happened today in Garden City, and call it our forecast for tomorrow.

11/02/14 8:52 pm

Precipitation is so funny. In Washington, it would be raining buckets and the weatherman would be outside with his umbrella saying, "there's an 80% chance of rain." That always cracked me up.

11/02/14 8:53 pm

I do like "our best guess at the weather," at least that's honest.