One of my polls on Oct 3 mentioned a study that claimed that there was a 70% chance of another Ebola-infected person coming to the US by Oct 24. Today that person showed up in NY.
Seeing patients who have Ebola in big cities in the states isn't over. I just hope the New York City sewer rats don't get it. Then it would be a real pandemic. Ick rats thank god for cats
Cant lose. If one gets ill before Oct 24 the statement is correct. If no one gets ill by Oct 24th it goes to the 30% side which is also correct. If they get ill after the 24th it is still in the 30% side & the statement is again correct. Cant lose.
It probably should have been 100%, given the number of our citizens involved in humanitarian and healthcare efforts in areas where it is prevalent. But the odds that it will spread here in the US are close to 0%.
"70% chance" is statistics, not science.
Thank you, statistics and the study of contagious diseases!
Predictable to say that we'd eventually have another case. Not so easy to predict the precise odds of that person showing up by a given date.
Fortunately he he secluded himself.
Yes, I think the odds are extremely low that he spread it. He didn't have symptoms when he was wandering NYC and he stayed home as soon as he felt tired.
Yea, I am just hearing about him going all over NY on the subway. So much for not spreading it.
Neither science or luck. Just common sense that it's gonna happen.
Sure, it's a safe be to say that we'd eventually have another case at some point. Not so easy to know the place accurate odds of the next case occurin by a given date. Some people act like they we've been getting a 100 new cases a day.
Here's lab website www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html
Here's the original paper from September 2nd. currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/