Show of HandsShow of Hands

Show Of Hands August 20th, 2012 12:00am

With the U.S. stock market near a five-year high (DJIA 13,275), do you think the Dow will end 2012 higher than where it is today?

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08/21/12 3:41 pm

QE3 might help the stock market in the long run - but it will pour gasoline on the fire that is the recession.

As for ThatGuy2, look up Cantillon Effects.

eradicator JC
08/21/12 2:52 pm

Normally, a second-term president would be good news for the economy, but there's a lot of unprecedented and unresolved factors looming in the way of historical patterns. Is this second term Eisenhower or Clinton; or second term Nixon or Reagan?

08/21/12 9:15 am

As soon as nobama is out it will be much much much better.

08/21/12 7:34 am

Depends if Obama is elected or not. If he is, be prepared for it to drop immediately.

ProfDG I Want Truth
08/21/12 6:07 am

The Fiscal Cliff, lack of QE 3, and the lack of progress in Europe are about to kill the stock market sometime this Fall. Additionally, bond yields have bottomed and corporations have been reporting higher earnings, but declining revenues. Prediction: higher for a few more weeks and down in October.

Vincere Seattle
08/20/12 10:48 pm

@prtetrri, If anything a devalued Euro would actually help the U.S. because it makes imported goods from Europe cheaper. At this point it is unlikely that the Euro will collapse altogether.

Vincere Seattle
08/20/12 10:44 pm

@32no, Actually the situation in Europe and the possibility of a slowdown in China are some of the biggest international issues effecting the stock market right now. If the Eurozone doesn't make proper reforms soon, it would certainly effect the U.S. stock market.

08/20/12 8:09 pm

The election doesn't matter at all, either Obama stays in office and makes a huge change, or he loses and Romney is president elect until 2013.

08/20/12 8:09 pm

Stocks are alway bumpy in October, November, and December of an election year. The next year is also usually bumpy, for maybe 6 months. This "if this guy gets elected then bla will happen" is BS, in fact, I predict no matter who gets elected, the stocks will drop, but will still be higher than

08/20/12 8:00 pm

However, elections have little to do with it.

08/20/12 7:59 pm

Prterri, The euro is already basically collapsed, our stocks seem to be surprisingly unaffected. I would be careful, many people say, oh the stocks will drop when the euro completely collapses, but throughout history, stocks have betrayed people's beliefs, and people lose millions this way.

08/20/12 7:24 pm

It depends much more on what is happening with Europe's collapsing Euro than our elections.

ovcourse 8646 Commiefornia
08/20/12 6:23 pm

@thatguy: not too good for unemployment though.

BamaGirl ROLL TIDE from Arizona
08/20/12 5:51 pm

I think it depends on the election in November.

08/20/12 5:21 pm

Not if upcoming debt ceiling "debate" is crazy again like the last one...

TheAntiLib Putnam County, NY
08/20/12 5:08 pm

The market will crash again before the year is out

teaparty Cleveland
08/20/12 4:43 pm

Actually since all democrats blame anything that happened during obamas term on bush, the good stock market must be because of bush.

Doopy Remedial Americanism
08/20/12 4:33 pm

I think Romney will win, removing an ever-present suppression from the stock market.

thatguy2 We tried to warn you
08/20/12 4:22 pm

Obama's socialism sure has been good for the stock market, eh Repbulicans?

08/20/12 4:21 pm

@commonsense you are right about it not reflecting current conditions but the market isn't high because companies are saving, it is seen as a bad sign when companies are saving money

08/20/12 4:18 pm

Can't tell if Taylorred's comment was sarcastic or not. I am seriously hoping that it is because market performance is a poor indicator of current economic conditions, and the Dow is even wprse

08/20/12 4:04 pm

This is proof obama is doing a good job. So now we know that wall street is fixed, can we please tax the rich now? Hope you republicans can come out of your shell and agree.

08/20/12 4:01 pm

Depends upon the election results.

08/20/12 3:57 pm

@alabaster1. I'm not sure you understand what a "Ponzi" scheme is. Having said that, the market will be down in the last quarter because it's almost always down in the last quarter, not because of anything the government has or hasn't done.

Vincere Seattle
08/20/12 2:46 pm

Just another upward swing in the cycle. Stocks are, on the whole, pretty close to fair value right now. Maybe a little overvalued. I would discourage people from going into sell mode right now, stocks will be better than bonds for mid and long term investment and should hedge inflation pretty well.

alabaster1 Louisiana
08/20/12 2:39 pm

If our dollar isn't backed by something other than THIN AIR and the promises by the AIRHEADS in Washington and their PONZI SCHEME it really isn't going to matter.

Caleb SOH Editor
08/20/12 2:01 pm

I think it really depends on whether obama stays in office or not. If romney is elected and we start drilling and using other practical, american energy, we'll see a boom

commonsense America isnt racist
08/20/12 1:34 pm

Stock market alone does not reflect gods or bad economy. For example today's stock market is pretty high. That's because companies are saving money, and not hiring.

08/20/12 1:01 pm

the dollar will collapse this year and so will the stocks

08/20/12 12:37 pm

If Obama gets back in it will end lower

08/20/12 12:27 pm

Election years have historically been bullish regardless of election outcomes.

08/20/12 11:27 am

To be clear, I think very little of it will have to do with the election results, and mostly to do with the general economic politics of the last 25+ collective years.

08/20/12 11:25 am

....a fiscal day of reckoning is fast approaching, but by the end of the year? We'll see...

08/20/12 11:24 am

Tough question: I'd argue it's only been high in recent history due to artificially low interest rates a a couple rounds of quantitative easing which is devaluing out dollar, but only time will tell...

Think Lovin Life
08/20/12 11:20 am

Yes, higher because the Street is anticipating an overwhelming win by Mr Romney.

veritas1 Panda
08/20/12 11:13 am

@Kommswife. What simple-minded thinking. Let's see, under Obama, corporations have their highest profits in history. The DOW/S&P/Nasdaq all approaching 4-5 year highs. Business investment is up 31% since he took office. Consumer confidence is up.

But nope...who needs logic.

08/20/12 10:06 am

Pay attention to the question people! It's a 5 year high, Obama has been in office for almost 4 years now! Everyone who says that it won't get higher under Obama misread the question, or is just plain stupid

Zod Above Pugetropolis
08/20/12 9:26 am

Romney doesn't want you to see the record of how much money Obama has made for him, with good reason. The DJIA closed at 8228.10 Wednesday, Jan 21, 2009, the day after Obama took office. It's 13267.15 right now - not bad in under four years. I hope whoever we elect does as well in the next four.

jimmyjelly BFE, PA
08/20/12 9:23 am

Ilove it. "five year high" Obamas been in office for what? Four years? Hmmm... Way to ignore facts republicans.

08/20/12 8:58 am

Because Obama will be packing his bags the end of this year ;)

08/20/12 8:52 am

The stock market has surged after every election since 1942. Regardless of who wins, the stock market will surge for a day or so.

blockfisher Clinton, CT
08/20/12 8:50 am

I hate to break it to all you political junkies out there but the stock markets performance has little to do with who is in office (thank god). I highly recommend Freakonomics to anyone who disagrees.