Show of HandsShow of Hands

Rotavele October 28th, 2014 5:53pm

Our economy is heading in a good direction.

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EnderWiggin So disillusioned...
10/28/14 12:55 pm

:-)

Sanders. Only his Presidential hopes are. Actually, there's buzz about a Warren / Sanders 2016 ticket. I would definitely vote Dem for that.

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eLucidate writing
10/28/14 5:39 pm

That's the same with any currency.

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BusinessJustin Tamriel
10/28/14 1:42 pm

Workforce participation has dropped from 66% to 63% according to the BLS, and it's unchanged according to Gallup, since 2007. Although it's at the lowest rate since 1978, it's not a really concerning number for me. It's been lower.

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BusinessJustin Tamriel
10/28/14 11:10 am

In general, yes. Unemployment is down, consumer debt is much more manageable, housing prices are much more realistic, inflation is moderate, and confidence is up. Wages are lagging, but once the labor market tips towards employees, we'll be good.

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hrankta
10/28/14 12:55 pm

That is mainly because of people falling out of the workforce, rather than jobs being created. Workforce participation is at a historic low.

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voc I am...verified
10/28/14 12:57 pm

I was thinking weekend at bernies

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hrankta
10/28/14 11:22 am

Unemployment is down?

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BusinessJustin Tamriel
10/28/14 2:10 pm

Quite honestly, it's almost a good sign. It means it could become a worker's market a lot sooner than expected, which will push wages up and likely lead to a solid period of economic growth.

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hrankta
10/28/14 3:39 pm

Unfortunately, only approx. 1/4 of the loss of labor force is due to people retiring. A lot of those jobs are being eliminated after the boomers leave, and soon it will be 2 people paying in for every 1 drawing Social Security.

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hrankta
10/28/14 3:45 pm

That spells a demographics disaster, since the surplus in Social Security has been spent, and there is nothing but IOUs left in the trust fund.

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eLucidate writing
10/28/14 6:21 pm

Japan never recovered from the 80s, but there are some similarities. eg. a volatile political environment where the party holding power switches too frequently for any plan to work.

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eLucidate writing
10/28/14 6:22 pm

We are in trouble if our next 30 years look like Japan's last 30.

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MrMilkdud
10/28/14 6:24 pm

Sorry, the correct response was "Pokemon."

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gamerguy217
10/28/14 8:33 pm

Japan actually has a national debt of around $10 trillion US dollars. It's in the ballpark, but it's still only 55% of what ours is.

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hrankta
10/28/14 1:57 pm

So, 4.5 million jobs gained, 11.4 million fewer people in the workforce.

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gamerguy217
10/28/14 8:35 pm

I was actually typing that out. Their gdp is 1/4 of ours, yet their debt is 55% of ours

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BusinessJustin Tamriel
10/28/14 2:08 pm

Remember, the population is aging fast. Baby boomers are hitting retirement a lot faster than our youth are starting to work. The participation rate is only going to keep going down for a long while, decades probably.

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BusinessJustin Tamriel
10/28/14 2:09 pm

When Social Security launched there were twenty workers for every retiree. Now there are only three workers for every retiree, and the ratio continues to drop. So yes, we're losing people faster than we're gaining jobs. I'm okay with this.

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moonshot More often I know nothing
10/28/14 3:25 pm

If McCain had been elected, and for the last six years the economy had exactly the same results, would your vote be different? Does the party in charge of the Executive Branch influence your vote? ...it shouldn't. The president has little effect...

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think4yourself Not a safe space
10/28/14 3:26 pm

I would vote for the dead guy in weekend at Bernie's over Bernie sanders any day.

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MrMilkdud
10/28/14 8:57 pm

Rota, News from China is tailored to giving western readers a false sense of confidence.
The bottom line is that even the middle and upper class Chinese are one or two generations past a subsistence economy, and most of the country is in poverty.

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gamerguy217
10/28/14 9:10 pm

Stocks would lose any kind of stability for starters, the price of tech & resources would rise by a lot. Their debts would be unable to be paid.

think4yourself Not a safe space
10/28/14 3:37 pm

When you wave the liberal flag you wave it high. Lol.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 6:13 pm

They've been following a similar economic recovery path as we have, using quantitative easing and government investing, but their decline is happening faster than ours.
We'll be where they are by 2016.

gamerguy217
10/28/14 9:12 pm

What happens then? We're all saying all this about how everything is all based on theory, but no one knows what the consequences would actually be. Would the global economy absorb the loss? Would it destabilize?

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 6:14 pm

Or, rather, during the 2016-2020 presidential term.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:13 pm

Another way to look at this is by considering what level of subsistence any given country is willing to tolerate before becoming completely unstable.
It's like playing limbo.
Our biggest economic competitor can maintain stability with much less.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:14 pm

So China can just ride the world economy straight down to the bottom with us. But they'll get back up a lot faster, and they'll recover a lot faster, and our people will still be wondering what happened to their welfare checks.

eLucidate writing
10/28/14 9:17 pm

are you saying we are more socialist than China?

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:20 pm

No, that has nothing to do with it. I'm saying our society is becoming increasingly accustomed to an easy lifestyle. The majority of Chinese society is living in poverty. They can't lose what they don't have.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:24 pm

So getting back to the original point, Rota's rebuttal to the inevitable collapse of our economy is that "everybody else is doing it." Which is true, but doesn't change the fact that the economy is collapsing.

Rotavele Alabama
10/28/14 8:21 pm

Japan has always had a debt equivalent to ours today.

Japan realizes that the govt isn't a business and not out for profit.

Japan is one of the few countries that is our technological rival, and doing very well.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:26 pm

It also means that you have to see who is setting themselves up to benefit most from a major collapse.
Right now, that's Russia and China. They know they can't beat us economically or militarily.
So they're choking us out, so to speak.

Rotavele Alabama
10/28/14 8:22 pm

Japan owes us a huge amount of money and we owe them a huge amount too :P

eLucidate writing
10/28/14 9:27 pm

I'm not sure I agree that ours and the global economy are failing, but it has been an interesting thought experiment.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:29 pm

Time will tell.
Even if the economy isn't failing, China has set itself up as our manufacturing base. And we now depend on their low labor costs to maintain our economy. Eventually, their labor force will demand more money, and our economy won't...

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:31 pm

...be able to handle it. There aren't anymore third world countries to export our labor needs to.
One way or another, they're putting themselves into a very strong trade and labor position in years to come.
And we clearly aren't.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:32 pm

In other words, we're heading for a collapse either way, and they stand to gain from either scenario.

eLucidate writing
10/28/14 9:35 pm

*tangent

I heard in NPR a while back that we no longer manufacture antibiotics anywhere in the US. That could ruin us in a global collapse.

gamerguy217
10/28/14 5:40 pm

Other currencies don't owe $18 trillion dollars

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 6:27 pm

Aside from that, it's true they have been doing this for longer than we have, but there's some speculation that we've just been better at absorbing or hiding the same trends because of our larger and more diverse economy.

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 6:28 pm

So while we don't feel all the ups and downs, our economic collapse is as inevitable as theirs.

Rotavele Alabama
10/28/14 8:33 pm

Yes but per capita it's much more than outs. Every American owes 58,000. Every British person owes 170,000.

gamerguy217
10/28/14 5:42 pm

Or rather, other governments issuing their own currencies don't owe anywhere near the perceived value of $18 trillion dollars

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 8:34 pm

What do British people have to do with Japanese national debt, rota?

MrMilkdud
10/28/14 9:39 pm

I haven't heard that. It's an interesting idea, but I don't know how that would work.

Rotavele Alabama
10/28/14 8:35 pm

And every person from Luxembourg owes 3.6 million dollars USD in their countries debt.

* Not literally owe, but debt per capita

hrankta
10/28/14 5:46 pm

Treasury bonds are nothing but IOUs.